The Dangerous Myth of “Only 2%” – Why That Statistic Is Misleading and Harmful

Written by Michael Thompson, Founder of the Falsely Accused Network

You’ll have heard it. Most of us have.

“Only 2% of allegations are false.”

It’s repeated so often it’s taken as gospel, quoted by journalists, police forces, campaigners—even the Crown Prosecution Service has referenced it in the past.

But is it true?

The short answer: no.

Or at least, not in the way most people understand it. That 2% figure doesn’t mean that 98% of allegations are genuine. It doesn’t mean 98% lead to convictions, or even that they’re provable. It simply means that 2% of cases were provably false. And that’s a critical distinction—because there’s a huge difference between “we know this was false” and “we don’t know either way”.

Let’s take a closer look.

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Where Does the 2% Come From?

The origin of the statistic often points back to a 2005 UK Home Office study, which looked at over 2,600 rape allegations. The researchers applied very strict criteria. In order to classify something as a “false allegation,” the case had to be conclusively proven to be false, often through a clear and credible retraction or evidence showing the incident could not have happened.

Using that strict filter, only about 2.5% were classed as false.

That’s where the famous number comes from. And yes, it’s technically correct—if you're only counting cases where there's rock-solid proof that the complainant lied.

But what about the rest?

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He-Said, She-Said: The Unknowable Middle Ground

In the real world, most allegations don’t fall into neat categories. They sit in the murky middle. Often, it’s one person’s word against another’s, with little or no evidence to support either side. These cases might not result in charges, or might be dropped due to lack of evidence—but they’re not counted as “false”, even if they’re never proven true.

That’s the trap.

“Only 2% are false” implies certainty, when the vast majority of cases are uncertain.

The Home Office study didn’t say 98% were true—it said 2% were provably false. That leaves 98% in a mixed bag of:

true but unprovable,

mistaken identity,

exaggerated claims,

cases closed with no further action,

and cases where we simply don’t know what happened.

The truth is, we may never know. But try explaining that nuance in a tweet—or to a police officer with a clipboard.

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The Real Impact of the 2% Myth

So why does this matter? Because for those falsely accused, this myth is more than just frustrating—it’s destructive.

Here’s what the “only 2%” line does:

It shuts down debate. If you challenge an allegation or talk about due process, you’re accused of attacking victims—because after all, "only 2% lie," right?

It removes empathy from the falsely accused. If society believes 98% of accusers are telling the truth, there’s no room to consider the innocent person whose life is being torn apart.

It poisons investigations. Officers and CPS lawyers may come into a case biased by this statistic, assuming the allegation is almost certainly true. That doesn’t exactly encourage fairness or objectivity.

It gets weaponised. False accusers know that once the allegation is made, the burden is instantly on the accused—and that most people won’t believe them, no matter what the evidence says.

And worst of all, it paints those of us trying to bring attention to wrongful allegations as if we’re part of the problem. That couldn’t be further from the truth.

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What We Need Instead: Honesty and Transparency

No one’s denying that genuine victims exist. They do. And they deserve support, protection, and justice.

But if we want a justice system that works for everyone, we have to start by being honest about what we don’t know.

That includes acknowledging:

That the true rate of false allegations is unknown.

That a large number of cases sit in a grey area.

And that both parties in a case deserve a fair, balanced investigation—not assumptions based on headlines or social media statistics.

Justice isn’t served by repeating a statistic that oversimplifies complex cases. It’s served by transparency, fairness, and a willingness to look at the facts—no matter how uncomfortable they might be.

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Final Thought

At the Falsely Accused Network, we hear from people every day who are facing life-changing allegations based on no evidence at all. Their careers, their children, their mental health, even their freedom—gone, sometimes in a matter of days.

They’re not part of some 2%.

They’re human beings in a system that too often assumes guilt from the start.

Let’s stop repeating myths.

Let’s start asking questions.

And let’s build a justice system that protects everyone, not just those who shout the loudest.

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📞 Contact the Falsely Accused Network

Email: support@falselyaccusednetwork.co.uk

Website: www.falselyaccusednetwork.co.uk

Phone: 0204 538 8788